North Shore Condos
Where are we now?
Heading into 2025, there are a total of 61 condo listings in Active or Contingent status on the MLS, whereby 50 are Active and 11 are Contingent. The average number of days on market for these 61 listings is 74. Based upon the current rate of sales (5 per month), this reflects approximately 12 months of inventory, which indicates we are in a "Buyer's Market" (whereby 7+ months of inventory reflects a Buyer's Market).
Current trendlines
The trailing 2-year perspective, above, shows the "line of best fit" or "trendline" of the number of monthly condo listing sales, the number of monthly condo listing price reductions, and the average number of days on market to sale for each property sold in a given month.
The current trendlines show a gradual rise in number of price reductions (with a big jump up in December 2024) at the same time the average days on market to sale have increased. The number of sold listings per month have remained relatively stable in the 5-6 sales per month range.
The chart found below shows a trendline of the average sale price per square foot (PSF) as gradually decreasing over the trailing 2-month period.
How did we get here? - The details
The number of new condo listings brought to market each month has risen over the course of the last 2 years, where 4-8 new listings per month have occurred most frequently, but 4 of the last 7 months have presented amounts in excess of that range, with the highest amount of the last 2 years having occurred last month, in December 2024, when 15 new listings were released. That amount is 2.5 times higher than the number of new listings released in December 2023, one year prior.
The number of monthly price reductions has also risen over the course of the last 2 years, where May 2024 marked the most notable departure from the greater historical trend, as the number of price reductions broke away from the range of 1-5 per month to demonstrate higher values in nearly every month since, with the highest single amount occuring last month, in December 2024, when 14 price reductions were announced. In December of 2023, one year prior, the number of price reductions announced was 1.
As noted above, the number of sold listings per month have remained relatively steady over time, primarily all occuring in the 4-8 sales per month range. The trendline does show a relatively minor decrease over time.
Also noted above, the average sold price per square foot has gradually decreased over the last 2-year period.
What to watch going forward
We are at a point in the north shore condo market where the inventory is increasing more rapidly than the rate of buying, which is creating more competition among sellers, which is creating an environment for more price reductions to take place. Ongoing, it will be important to monitor both the number of contingent sales and the number of new listings, to see if the rate of buying can keep up with, and even make up for, the increase in inventory. The very high number of new listings and number of price reductions announced in December 2024 draws attention, but the high number of contingent listings (11) as we enter into January bodes well to see a potential uptick in buying, at least in the short term.
North Shore Residences < $5M
Where are we now?
Heading into 2025, there are a total of 50 residences on the north shore priced under $5M that are in Active or Contingent status on the MLS, whereby 38 are Active and 12 are Contingent. The average number of days on market for these 61 listings is 127. Based upon the current rate of sales (5 per month), this reflects approximately 10 months of inventory, which indicates we are in a "Buyer's Market" (whereby 7+ months of inventory reflects a Buyer's Market).
Current trendlines
The trailing 2-year perspective, above, shows the "line of best fit" or "trendline" of the number of monthly residences sales under $5M, the number of monthly price reductions for residences under $5M, and the average number of days on market to sale for each residence priced under $5M that is sold in a given month.
The current trendlines show a gradual rise in number of price reductions, at the same time the number of sold listings per month have increased, and the average number of days on market have decreased.
The chart found below shows a trendline of the average sale price per square foot (PSF) as gradually decreasing over the trailing 2-year period.
How did we get here? - The details
The number of residences priced under $5M brought to market each month has risen over the course of the last 2 years, where 3-7 new listings per month have occurred most frequently, but 5 of the last 8 months have presented amounts in excess of that range, in amounts ranging from 10-13. The 11 new listings in December 2024 is more than 2 times higher than the number of new listings released in December 2023, one year prior.
The number of monthly price reductions has also risen over the course of the last 2 years, where July 2024 marked the most notable departure from the greater historical trend, as the number of price reductions broke away from the range of 0-4 per month to demonstrate higher values in nearly every month since, with amounts reaching double-digits (10) in September 2024, and 9 in December 2024. In December of 2023, one year prior, the number of price reductions announced was 2.
As noted above, the number of sold listings per month have steadily increased over the last 2 years. In part, this was likely a byproduct of historically low inventory in 2023 (i.e. what is not listed cannot be sold), so as inventory came back to market in 2024, the rate of sale steadily increased.
Also noted above, the average sold price per square foot has gradually decreased over the last 2-year period. With extremely limited inventory in 2023, pricing remained more firm. In 2024, as more inventory was made available and as availabilities outpaced the rate of buying, buyers had more options and sellers had to compete more, so more price reductions were announced, which has contributed to a gradual decline in the average sold price per square foot in 2024.
What to watch going forward
The trendlines of decreasing days on market and number of sales increasing are positives for the market, however it is important to keep in perspective the total amount of inventory, which currently sits at 50 properties and 10 months of inventory given the current rate of selling. The decreasing days on market trend (around 35-70 days over the last 6 months) is for the properties that have actually sold - the average days on market for the 50 properties remaining available is higher, at 127. Buyer demand appears to be relatively stable, but buyers do continue to have more options than in recent history. While many properties will sell sooner, others will not until later unless buyer demand increases. Again, it will be important to monitor the comparative rates of contingencies vs. new listings ongoing to keep a pulse on the degree of competitiveness in the market.
North Shore Residences $5M - $10M
Where are we now?
This cross-section of the market is obviously significantly smaller than where the bulk of the volume of buying and selling activity occurs, but still prevalent enough that it is worth examining, and it functions in such a materially different way that it is worth bifurcating from the rest of the data.
Heading into 2025, there are a total of 13 residences priced between $5M - $10M that are either in Active or Contingent status on the MLS, whereby 12 are Active and 1 is Contingent. The average number of days on market for these 13 listings is 157. Based upon the current rate of sales (1 per month), this reflects approximately 13 months of inventory, which indicates we are in a "Buyer's Market" (whereby 7+ months of inventory reflects a Buyer's Market).
Trendlines
The sales data in this cross-section of the market is non-regular enough that an extrapolation of it would easily paint a false picture, so graphical analysis was not completed for this very reason.
How did we get here? - The details
The number of new listings in 2024 increased to 14, with 9 of those new listings having been introduced to the market in the last 6 months (3 of them in December 2024). This is an increase compared to 2023, when 7 new listings were introduced.
The number of sold properties increased to 7 in 2024, compared to 4 in 2023. That's a total of 11 sales in the last 24 months, or roughly one sale every 2 months. If that long-term extrapolated rate of sale were to be applied to the current available inventory of 13 listings, that would equate to 26 months of inventory. However, over the last 5 months there have been 5 sales, so the shorter term extrapolated rate of sale is 1 per month, pointing towards an inventory level of 13 months.
The number of price reductions increased from the historical mode of 0-1 per month to 1-4 per month over the last 6 months.
What to watch going forward
The 5 sales occuring over the last 5 months are the most amount of sales in any 5-month period over the last couple of years. The 1 current contingent listing points to the potential continuation of this trend of 1 sale per month. However, over the same 5-month period, a total of 9 new listings have been introduced, whereby the rate of new listings has outpaced the rate of sales at a ratio of nearly 2-to-1. It will be interesting to watch if the rate of buying can keep pace or even increase to a higher level, such as 2 sales per month, which has only occurred in 2 of the trailing 24 months.